Apr. 10, 2014

2016 Is Getting Closer Than You Might Think

"In 2016, would you prefer to be called 'Madame President' or 'Mrs. President'?" a moderator reading questions asked Hillary Clinton. Clinton chuckled and placed down her mic, shrugging her shoulders as she exited the stage to cheers from the audience.
(From a Huffington Post article April 10, 2014)

I know I have gone on the record saying I wish she wouldn't run, because it will be very difficult in this climate for her and history says the road for HER will be pitted with political landmines.

It don't matta.

She will run and she will win big when she does.

The Right Wing Political Establishment will do what they always do and demonize her and Bill Clinton all the way to the end.

Let's go through the potential opponents and current landmines she will have to manuever to get to the White House.

On the Democratic side:

Joe Biden will have to do a lot of soul searching from now until Mrs. Clinton announces her candidacy. He wants the job himself and probably feels a bit of entitlement. His 1988 candidacy was derailed by plagiarism charges from speeches he gave using phrases and wording from  Neil Kinnock, leader of the British Labour Party at the time.

We are a long way off from 1988 and Biden has done a lot of service to his country, but compared to Hillary Clinton, he is not formidable. He has served the Obama administration with dignity and diligence, but his time has long passed to be President.

Elizabeth Warren is THE populist choice, but she is in the Hillary Clinton camp. I have written it before and I will say it again right here. She should be on the ticket with Clinton. Two STRONG women. The northeast angle may keep that from happening. They both reside in the northeast.

If I were Hillary, I would still take a long look at Warren as second banana. States like Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia and Michigan could be swayed by Warren's message of helping citizens. I feel it would be a strong ticket with THESE two women on it and Clinton could keep Warren on the "Clinton Message" and not so much the "Warren Message."

Okay. Time to discuss the "Clown Car" and the establishment GOP candidates.

Rand Paul is the best far right candidate, but his message of Libertarianism will not sell in swing states. He has no foreign policy experience.

Ted Cruz has no political skills moving towards the center. Paul does. Cruz will likely be toast very early in the process.

Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul may just cancel each other out as the primaries move along.

Chris Christie seems to be a non factor with scandal surrounding him on several fronts.

Jeb Bush is the MOST appealing GOP candidate. It will be fascinating to watch him re-establish the old guard Republican party. Bush appears to be on a path to NOT catering to the right wing. 

He recently stated his views on immigration. He is married to a Latina and speaks fluid Spanish. Bush looks to be on a course to be middle of the road and unapologetic about it. If he can buck the trend of the current far right Republican politics, he will give Mrs. Clinton a tussle.

Bush would win Florida and the southern states in a close election.

The question of voter suppression could be interesting in that Bush may start to push back on those conservative legislatures who continue to make it harder for its citizens to vote Democratic.

The way I see this playing out is Clinton v. Bush II. If that campaign materialized, it would be very close. Jeb Bush will have to restructure the Republican Party to be a more center right party. That will be very difficult to do, but he may be their ONLY hope to regain the White House.