May. 12, 2016

2016 Presidential Election: It's Called Math

By Marc Platt

In 2004 the George W. Bush campaign decided to embrace the Latino voters earlier in the primary season. That was a fortuitous decision as they were able to correctly target voters (47%) would would help them squeek by John Kerry in the later general election. Of course, they used their old dirty tricks like "Swiftboating" and other election-defining tactics to overcome their natural deficits in GOP voters to win that election.

In 2007-8 Barack Obama had a team that included many young and seasoned political advisors who were able to build on what the Bush team had done. Obama's election organization used metrics to target districts, neighborhoods and even homes that were friendly to THEIR message and cause.

Obama's team took these new metrics and absolutely crushed John McCain and then Mitt Romney in the next two presidential elections.

Donald Trump has decided to scorn those tatcics for his campaign. Trump has said that he is doing everything right with his message and really doesn't need to use the current campaign-styles to beat Hillary Clinton in the fall.

This tells me he doesn't truly believe he can win this election. He is not a stupid man.

The fact that he is projected to have a record-breaking 12 million GOP primary votes does NOT translate to a general election win.

Mitt Romney received over 59 million votes in 2012 in the general election and got CRUSHED by Obama.

The fact that Latins, Asians, African Americans and women view Trump with disdain may get him 45-50 million votes and lose the senate and the house to the Democrats. There are gleeful Democratic down-ballot campaigns starting to run ads AGAINST Trump to get their senate and house candidates elected. The GOP candidates in those downballot races are being forced to line up against Donald J. Trump.

We are talking "TITANIC"-like results for the GOP. This is going to be quite a show, but it will come down to basic math when is all said and done and the math is on the Democrat's side.

I predict Hillary Clinton wins by 150 (or more) electoral votes and the US Senate returns to the Dems. The House of Representatives will stay red, but not by much.