Marc Platt's Politics: I'm a Lefty
By Marc Platt
Antonin Scalia's death is a game changer in American politics. The US Supreme Court will now be evened out at 4 liberels and 4 conservatives. President Obama will come out with his nominee, who will be looked at as a sacrificial lamb with no chance of being confirmed.
Justice Kennedy becomes the KEY MEMBER of the current court. The cases this court had chosen to hear are significant. There are abortion, affirmative action and electoral matters slated to be heard. Kennedy could be the swing vote that keeps many of these cases from serving the conservative judicial aggenda Scalia so greatly championed.
Barack Obama has little, if any chance to get his potential nominee confirmed, which makes this election season even crazier as both sides will undoubtedly fund raise off his death and the importqance of getting a presidential candidate elected.
Ted Cruz wasted no time citing Scalia's death as a "most important" reason to get a Republican elected.
My prediction...America will have its highest general election turnout ever with the future of the US Supreme Court now the number one reason to get a new President elected for their side.
This will be a Battle Royale that will definitely help more establishment-type candidates. Keep an eye on Donald Trump's poll numbers as the sobering thought of him selecting the next justice sinks in to the voters of the deep south. Ted Cruz will be able to shore up his base. Jeb Bush and John Kasich will seem more reasonable to voters who thought they wanted change.
This development changes everything about this election cycle for the White House and US SEnate.
By Marc Platt
The people have spoken...Or have they?
This is how the Republican race to the nomination really looks to me after New Hampshire.
Donald Trump will keep spewing outrageous things that come off as "Nativism." Ted Cruz will keep saying right-wing conservative things to hold his part of the base. Jeb Bush and John Kasich will try to sound reasonable and "Governor"-type things. As long as Bush and Kasich can stay in the race and have enough money to get to Cleveland, they have a shot.
Trump and Cruz should battle this out all the way to the convention and as long as the four of them are in the race, there is a "HUGE" chance that we will see a contested convention.
This is all about delegates and how to get the necessary amount to win the nomination.
Bush and Kasich need to stick around and let Trump and Cruz battle this thing out.
No matter what happens, the GOP will be far right when the general election happens.
The Democrats are battling for the heart of THEIR party. Bernie Sanders is bringing THAT party far left. Hillary Clinton is being forced to drift towards his brand of socialism.
This is a fascinating thing to watch.
By Marc Platt
I am sorry my far-left-leaning Sanders supporters. It is going to come out that Bernie Sanders has been in the system just like Hillary and everyone else. He is PART of the establishment and yes the economy is rigged for the richest. Mr. Sanders is a part of all that too.
Political Establishment: "A group of social, economic, and political leaders who form a ruling class (as of a nation)"
Someone explain to me how BERNIE SANDERS is NOT a part of the establishment.
1. He has caucused with The Democrats for 25 years, dealing with Democrats and Republicans to get things done.
2. He SEEKS the highest office in the land (POTUS), which is the ultimate establishment position in the free world. right?
3. Sanders received donations from the Democratic Party’s main Senate fundraising arm, which had in turn gotten money from Wall Street. (Time Magazine 2/8/16)
You make the call.
By Marc Platt
The Political Media Machine exists to sell advertising. They have a stake in the horse race as long as they last long enough to keep selling ads.
Donald Trumpo is a huge TV star. That does not mean he is a GREAT artist, or even a worthy political candidate. Trump SELLS. Did Ted Cruz WIN the Iowa Caucus? Or did Donald Trump LOSE the Iowa Caucus?
Ted Cruz is one of the most unlike-able politicians in the history of our republic, but he had a great ground game in Iowa.
Let's remember you could barely fill a few football statdiums with the amount of people who voted in the GOP Iowa Caucus. Cruz spent nearly a year there to write his only possible ticket out of Iowa. The road gets very murky from here on out for Cruz. New Hampshire will bring him down to earth. Trump has big numbers there.
If Trump under-performs in New Hampshire and we see the rise of Rubio and Kasich, there will be a rush of donors flocking to those candidates.
Of course you don't need to listen to me or anyone else. You can think this through yourself. Is America ready to have a thrice-married casino owner run the country in light of his four bankrupcies? REALLY?
Will people actually consider electing Ted Cruz, the man who is responsible for the government shutdown a few years back? REALLY?
Will America vote for a 74-year-old Independent self-proclaimed socialist (Bernie Sanders) who wants to gut Obamacare and start over with asingle-payer system that was already rejected by congress and raise your taxes to do it? REALLY?
Like I said "Believe what you know, not what the media tells you." Think this through yourself.
I love shows like 'Morning Joe' on MSNBC with the conservative Joe Scarborough and the liberal Mika B. That show was on the verge of absolute collapse until they started supporting the notion that Donald Trump could win. They bring him on their show 2-3 times per week and all th epolitical shows have sucked up to Trump to bolster their ratings for 7 months. That act will start wearing thin very soon.
The real horse race begins in South Carolina. That is when the diversity electorate kicks in with many African American and other rising minority electorates having THEIR say in who will run the country beginning next January. That I do know.
By Marc Platt
I have been thinking about this upcoming Presidential election a lot for the past year. It is frigging crazy to think that Donald Trump could possibly be the nominee for the GOP.
The only path I see to changing the dynamic now is if Trump wins Iowa and we get a surprise runner-up like Rubio. and Cruz falls to third.
If Trump wins New Hampshire and John Kasich keeps improving and finishes a decent 2nd, THEN the GOP establishment coalesces around Kasich and a machine is built to support him as their candidate. That is the ONLY scenario I see happening to beat Trump. I don't believe people will unite around Jeb, Marco or the Bridge Guy.
Kasich is the obvious VP pick being a popular OHIO governor, but he may have a say in the outcome of these primaries. He is a bad joke-telling, but decent institutional-ist. After 7 years of racially-divided obstructionism I truly believe the GOP will ride through this crazy phase and put a moderate Republican on the top of the ticket. Kasich is the ONLY guy running with the credentials to actually do the job on the Republican side of the aisle.
Hillary seems to me to be the only candidate who will get 65 million or more votes. I really don't see Trump getting that many voters. I know the Reagan argument, but HE was a former California governor.
This makes sense in a year that doesn't make sense...